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Gerald C Nelson

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Agricultural and Consumer Economics
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\"Gerald
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Gerald C Nelson
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Professor Emeritus
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Profile Sections

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Education

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  • Ph.D. (Applied Economics), Stanford University
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  • A.M. (Economics), Stanford University
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  • A.B. (Economics), Stanford University
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Academic Positions

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  • Professor Emeritus
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Other Professional Employment

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  • Senior Research Fellow, International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, 2008 to 2013.
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Major Consulting Activities

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  • Chicago Council on Global Affairs, Chicago'); document.write('CGIAR, Rome
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Research Statement

Some of my current research activities are

  • Economic spatial analysis
    • This research uses spatially explicit data such as satellite images and other geographic data in econometric models to identify determinants of existing land use. These techniques also make it possible to simulate location-specific effects of policy changes on land use and consequent environmental effects. The focus is on developing countries where land use data are scarce and expensive to collect. We\'re currently assembling a high performance cluster to be able to handle larger data sets more easily.
  • The Value of Remotely Sensed Data
    • Because of my long-standing efforts to use remotely sensed data in economic models, I have been asked to cooperate with USDA in a study of whether and how landsat data have generated social benefits.
  • The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment
    • The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment project, a major United Nations-supported project to \"map the health of our planet, and so fill important gaps in the knowledge that we need to preserve it,\" - UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan
  • Economics of GMOs in agriculture
    • I finished an edited book (published by Academic Press) on this topic in 2001. It combines in-depth economic analysis of the three most widely-grown GM crops with 12 \"perspective\" chapters from authors with widely varying views. Click here for a review in Nature Biotech.  David Bullock and I used a spatial data set of soybean cropping practices and weed problems to estimate the effect of GM soybean adoption on volume and toxicity of herbicide application.
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Research Interests

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  • Climate change and food security
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  • Policy, trade, and development
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Books Authored or Co-Authored (Original Editions)

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Books Edited or Co-Edited (Original Editions)

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  • Nelson, G. C., ed. Genetically Modified Organisms in Agriculture: Economics and Politics. San Diego: Academic Press, 2001, 344 pages.
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  • Waithaka, Michael, Gerald C. Nelson, Timothy S. Thomas, and Miriam Kyotalimye, ed. 2013. East African Agriculture and Climate Change. Washington, D.C.: International Food Policy Research Institute. doi:10.2499/9780896292055.
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  • Jalloh, Abdulai, Gerald C. Nelson, Timothy S. Thomas, Robert Zougmoré, and Harold Roy-Macauley, ed. 2013. West African Agriculture and Climate Change. Washington, DC. doi:10.2499/9780896292048.
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  • Hachigonta, Sepo, Gerald C. Nelson, Timothy S. Thomas, and Lindiwe Majele Sibanda, ed. 2013. Southern African Agriculture and Climate Change A Comprehensive Analysis. Washington, D.C.: International Food Policy Research Institute. doi:10.2499/9780896292086.
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Selected Articles in Journals

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  • Thornton, P., Nelson, G., Mayberry, D., & Herrero, M. (2022). Impacts of heat stress on global cattle production during the 21st century: a modelling study. The Lancet Planetary Health, 6(3), e192–e201. doi: 10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00002-X
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  • Thornton, P., Nelson, G., Mayberry, D., & Herrero, M. (2022). Impacts of heat stress on global cattle production during the 21st century: a modelling study. The Lancet Planetary Health, 6(3), e192–e201. doi: 10.1016/S2542-5196(22)00002-X
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  • Thornton, P., Nelson, G., Mayberry, D. E., & Herrero, M. (2021). Increases in extreme heat stress in domesticated livestock species during the twenty-first century. Global Change Biology. doi: 10.1111/gcb.15825
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  • Polly Ericksen, Thornton, P. K., & Nelson, G. C. (2020). Ruminant Livestock and Climate Change in the Tropics. In J. McIntire & D. Grace (Eds.), The Impact of the International Livestock Research Institute (p. 747). Nairobi, Kenya and Wallingford, UK: CABI.
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  • Nelson, G., Bogard, J., Lividini, K., Arsenault, J., Riley, M., Sulser, T. B., Mason-D’Croz, D., Power, B., Gustafson, D., Herrero, M., Wiebe, K., Cooper, K., Remans, R., & Rosegrant, M. (2018). Income growth and climate change effects on global nutrition security to mid-century. Nature Sustainability, 1(12). doi: 10.1038/s41893-018-0192-z
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  • Herrero, M., Thornton, P. K., Power, B., Bogard, J. R., Remans, R., Fritz, S., Gerber, J. S., Nelson, G., See, L., Waha, K., Watson, R. A., West, P. C., Samberg, L. H., van de Steeg, J., Stephenson, E., van Wijk, M., & Havlík, P. (2017). Farming and the geography of nutrient production for human use: a transdisciplinary analysis. The Lancet Planetary Health, 1(1), e33–e42. doi: 10.1016/S2542-5196(17)30007-4
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  • Gbegbelegbe, S., Cammarano, D., Asseng, S., Robertson, R., Chung, U., Adam, M., Abdalla, O., Payne, T., Reynolds, M., Sonder, K., Shiferaw, B., & Nelson, G. (2017). Baseline simulation for global wheat production with CIMMYT mega-environment specific cultivars. Field Crops Research, 202. doi: 10.1016/j.fcr.2016.06.010
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  • Finley, J. W., Dimick, D., Marshall, E., Nelson, G. C., Mein, J. R., & Gustafson, D. I. (2017). Nutritional Sustainability: Aligning Priorities in Nutrition and Public Health with Agricultural Production. Advances in Nutrition: An International Review Journal, 8(5), 780–788. doi: 10.3945/an.116.013995
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  • Herrero, M., Thornton, P. K., Power, B., Bogard, J. R., Remans, R., Fritz, S., Gerber, J. S., Nelson, G., See, L., Waha, K., Watson, R. A., West, P. C., Samberg, L. H., van de Steeg, J., Stephenson, E., van Wijk, M., & Havlík, P. (2017). Farming and the geography of nutrient production for human use: a transdisciplinary analysis. The Lancet Planetary Health, 1(1), e33–e42. doi: 10.1016/S2542-5196(17)30007-4
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  • Gustafson, D., Hayes, M., Janssen, E., Lobell, D. B., Long, S., Nelson, G. C., Pakrasi, H. B., Raven, P., Robertson, G. P., Robertson, R., & Wuebbles, D. (2016). Pharaoh’s Dream Revisited: An Integrated US Midwest Field Research Network for Climate Adaptation. BioScience, 66(1), 80–85. doi: 10.1093/biosci/biv164
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  • Kleinwechter, U., Gastelo, M., Ritchie, J., Nelson, G., & Asseng, S. (2016). Simulating cultivar variations in potato yields for contrasting environments. Agricultural Systems, 145. doi: 10.1016/j.agsy.2016.02.011
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  • Gustafson, David, Michael Hayes, Emily Janssen, David B. Lobell, Stephen Long, Gerald C. Nelson, Himadri B. Pakrasi, et al. 2015. “Pharaoh’s Dream Revisited: An Integrated US Midwest Field Research Network for Climate Adaptation.” BioScience. doi:10.1093/biosci/biv164.
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  • Valin, H., Sands, R. D., van der Mensbrugghe, D., Nelson, G. C., Ahammad, H., Blanc, E., Bodirsky, B., Fujimori, S., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Heyhoe, E., Kyle, P., Mason-D’Croz, D., Paltsev, S., Rolinski, S., Tabeau, A., van Meijl, H., von Lampe, M., & Willenbockel, D. (2014). The future of food demand: Understanding differences in global economic models. Agricultural Economics (United Kingdom), 45(1). doi: 10.1111/agec.12089
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  • Ye, L., Tang, H., Wu, W., Yang, P., Nelson, G. C., Mason-D’Croz, D., & Palazzo, A. (2014). Chinese food security and climate change: Agriculture futures. Economics, 8(1). doi: 10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2014-1
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  • Nelson, G. C., & Shively, G. E. (2014). Modeling climate change and agriculture: An introduction to the special issue. Agricultural Economics (United Kingdom), 45(1). doi: 10.1111/agec.12093
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  • Nelson, G. C. (2014). Advancing Global Food Security in the Face of a Changing Climate. Chicago: Chicago Council on Global Affairs
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  • Nelson, G. C., van der Mensbrugghe, D., Ahammad, H., Blanc, E., Calvin, K., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Heyhoe, E., Kyle, P., Lotze-Campen, H., von Lampe, M., Mason d’Croz, D., van Meijl, H., Müller, C., Reilly, J., Robertson, R., Sands, R. D., Schmitz, C., Tabeau, A., … Willenbockel, D. (2014). Agriculture and climate change in global scenarios: Why don’t the models agree. Agricultural Economics (United Kingdom), 45(1). doi: 10.1111/agec.12091
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  • Schmitz, C., van Meijl, H., Kyle, P., Nelson, G. C., Fujimori, S., Gurgel, A., Havlik, P., Heyhoe, E., d’Croz, D. M., Popp, A., Sands, R., Tabeau, A., van der Mensbrugghe, D., von Lampe, M., Wise, M., Blanc, E., Hasegawa, T., Kavallari, A., & Valin, H. (2014). Land-use change trajectories up to 2050: Insights from a global agro-economic model comparison. Agricultural Economics (United Kingdom), 45(1). doi: 10.1111/agec.12090
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  • Valin, Hugo, Ronald Sands, Dominique van der Mensbrugghe, Gerald C. Nelson, Helal Ahammad, Benjamin Bodirsky, Tomoko Hasegawa, et al. 2014. “Global Economic Models and Food Demand Towards 2050: An Intercomparison.” Agricultural Economics 45 (1).
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  • Von Lampe, M., Willenbockel, D., Ahammad, H., Blanc, E., Cai, Y., Calvin, K., Fujimori, S., Hasegawa, T., Havlik, P., Heyhoe, E., Kyle, P., Lotze-Campen, H., Mason d’Croz, D., Nelson, G. C., Sands, R. D., Schmitz, C., Tabeau, A., Valin, H., van der Mensbrugghe, D., & van Meijl, H. (2014). Why do global long-term scenarios for agriculture differ? An overview of the AgMIP global economic model intercomparison. Agricultural Economics (United Kingdom), 45(1). doi: 10.1111/agec.12086'); document.write('
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  • Nelson, G. C., Valin, H., Sands, R. D., Havlík, P., Ahammad, H., Deryng, D., Elliott, J., Fujimori, S., Hasegawa, T., Heyhoe, E., Kyle, P., Von Lampe, M., Lotze-Campen, H., Mason d’Croz, D., van Meijl, H., van der Mensbrugghe, D., Müller, C., Popp, A., Robertson, R., … Willenbockel, D. (2014). Climate change effects on agriculture: Economic responses to biophysical shocks. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(9), 3274–3279. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1222465110
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  • Clemens Breisinger, Tingju Zhu, Perrihan Al Riffai, Gerald C. Nelson, Richard Robertson, and Dorte Verner. 2013. “Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Syria.” Climate Change Economics 4 (1): 30. doi:10.1142/S2010007813500024.
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  • Dube, Sikhalazo, Scholes Robert J, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, Gerald C. Nelson, and Amanda Palazzo. 2013. “South African Food Security and Climate Change: Agriculture Futures.” Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2013-12). http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/discussionpapers/2013-12.
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  • Kiselev, Sergey, Roman Romashkin, Gerald C. Nelson, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, and Amanda Palazzo. 2013. “Russia’s Food Security and Climate Change: Looking into the Future.” Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2013-16). doi:10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2013-39. http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/discussionpapers/2013-16.
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  • Robertson, Richard, Gerald C. Nelson, Timothy Thomas, and Mark Rosegrant. 2013. “Incorporating Process Based Crop Simulation Models into Global Economic Analyses.” American Journal of Agricultural Economics 95 (May 21): 228–235. doi:10.1093/ajae/aas034. http://ajae.oxfordjournals.org/cgi/doi/10.1093/ajae/aas034.
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  • Takle, Eugene S., David Gustafson, Roger Beachy, Gerald C. Nelson, Daniel Mason-D’Croz, and Amanda Palazzo. 2013. “US Food Security and Climate Change: Agricultural Futures.” Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal 7 (2013-34). doi:10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2013-34. http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/discussionpapers/2013-17.
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  • Vermeulen, S.J., P.K. Aggarwal, A. Ainslie, C. Angelone, B.M. Campbell, A.J. Challinor, J.W. Hansen, et al. 2012. “Options for Support to Agriculture and Food Security Under Climate Change.” Environmental Science & Policy 15 (1) (October): 136–144. doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2011.09.003.
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  • Rosenzweig, C., J.W. Jones, J.L. Hatfield, A.C. Ruane, K.J. Boote, P. Thorburn, J.M. Antle, et al. 2012. “The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and Pilot Studies.” Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. doi:10.1016/j.agrformet.2012.09.011.
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  • Vermeulen, S.J., P.K. Aggarwal, A. Ainslie, C. Angelone, B.M. Campbell, A.J. Challinor, J.W. Hansen, et al. 2012. “Options for Support to Agriculture and Food Security Under Climate Change.” Environmental Science & Policy 15 (1) (October): 136–144. doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2011.09.003. http://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S1462901111001456.
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  • Vermeulen, Sonja, Robert Zougmoré, Eva Wollenberg, Philip Thornton, Gerald Nelson, Patricia Kristjanson, James Kinyangi, et al. 2012. “Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security: a Global Partnership to Link Research and Action for Low-income Agricultural Producers and Consumers.” Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 4 (1) (February): 128–133. doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2011.12.004.
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  • Breisinger, Clemens, Tingju Zhu, Perrihan Al Riffai, Gerald C. Nelson, Richard Robertson, Jose Funes, and Dorte Verner. 2011. Global and Local Economic Impacts of Climate Change in Syrian Arab Republic and Options for Adaptation. Washington, D.C.
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  • Vermeulen, S.J., P.K. Aggarwal, A. Ainslie, C. Angelone, B.M. Campbell, A.J. Challinor, J.W. Hansen, et al. 2012. “Options for support to agriculture and food security under climate change.” Environmental Science & Policy 15 (1) (October): 136-144. doi:10.1016/j.envsci.2011.09.003.
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  • Vermeulen, Sonja, Robert Zougmoré, Eva Wollenberg, Philip Thornton, Gerald C. Nelson, Patricia Kristjanson, James Kinyangi, et al. 2012. “Climate change, agriculture and food security: a global partnership to link research and action for low-income agricultural producers and consumers.” Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability 4 (December 2011) (January): 1-6. doi:10.1016/j.cosust.2011.12.004.
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  • Nelson, Gerald C. 2011. “Untangling the Environmentalist’s Paradox: Better Data, Better Accounting, and Better Technology Will Help.” BioScience 61 (1): 9-10.
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  • You, Liangzhi, Claudia Ringler, Ulrike Wood-Sichra, Richard Robertson, Stanley Wood, Tingju Zhu, Gerald Nelson, Zhe Guo, and Yan Sun. 2011. “What is the irrigation potential for Africa? A combined biophysical and socioeconomic approach.” Food Policy. doi:10.1016/j.foodpol.2011.09.001.
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  • Nelson, G. C. (2010). “The perfect storm: food security and nutrition under climate change.” Significance 7(1): 6.
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  • De Pinto, A. and G. C. Nelson (2009). “Land Use Change with Spatially Explicit Data: A Dynamic Approach.” Environmental and Resource Economics 43(2): 209-229.
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  • Laude, T., G. C. Nelson, et al. (2009). “Dynamic Modeling of Optimal Papaya Replanting Decisions in the Philippines.” Quarterly Journal of International Agriculture 48(2): 155-170.
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  • You, L., C. Ringler, G.C. Nelson, U. Wood-Sichra, R. Robertson, S. Wood, G. Zhe, T. Zhu, and Y. Sun. 2009. “Torrents and Trickles: Irrigation Spending Needs in Africa.” AICD Background Paper 9. World Bank. Washington D.C.
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  • Nelson, G. (2009). “Responding to the threat.” Development and Cooperation 36(10): 3.
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  • Nelson, G. C. (2009). “Climate change and food security: The case for agriculture at Copenhagen.” Food Ethics 4(4): 3.
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  • Nelson, G. C. and M. Rosegrant (2009). Climate change, agriculture and food security: a potential win-win in Copenhagen. Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting 2009, Commonwealth Secretariat: 4.
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  • Robertson, R. D., G. C. Nelson, et al. (2009). “Investigating the predictive capabilities of discrete choice models in the presence of spatial effects.” Papers in Regional Science 88(2): 367-388.
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  • Nelson, G. C. and R. Robertson. 2008. Green Gold or Green Wash: Environmental Consequences of Biofuels in the Developing World. Review of Agricultural Economics 30(3):517-529.
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Other Publications

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  • Nelson, G.C. and D. Bullock, 2003: Simulating A Relative Environmental Effect of Glyphosate-Resistant Soybeans. Ecological Economics, 45(2), 189-202.
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  • Nelson, G.C., A. De Pinto, S.W. Stone, and V. Harris, 2004: Land Use and Road Improvements: a Spatial Perspective. International Regional Science Review, 27(3), 297-325.
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  • Nelson, G.C. DiscoverEcon. A software tutorial tutorial system.
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  • Millennium Ecosystem Assessment publications.
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  • Bezner Kerr, R., T. Hasegawa, R. Lasco, I. Bhatt, D. Deryng, A. Farrell, H. Gurney-Smith, H. Ju, S. Lluch-Cota, F. Meza, G. Nelson, H. Neufeldt, and P. Thornton, 2022: Food, Fibre, and Other Ecosystem Products. In: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press.'); document.write('
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